Our thinking, for members.
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Responding to the floods
This past week’s floods have been labelled a "one-in-100-year" event. We believe one of our portfolio holdings, Johns Lyng (JLG), is well placed to service the victims of this catastrophe, whilst also showcasing its value proposition to insurer customers. Company Overview JLG is an integrated building services group delivering 3 main services: Building & Restoration Services; Commercial Building Services; and…
Pfizer succeeds! 90% effective vaccine! What's next?
Pfizer made it! On 9 November, Pfizer made an announcement declaring positive interim results from a COVID-19 vaccine phase III trial. In the press release, Pfizer said they had identified 94 cases of COVID-19 among more than 40,000 trial participants. While the company did not disclose how many of those were in the controlled group, they claimed the vaccine was…
Traditional Retailers saved by JobKeeper for now
The earning season is revealing that bricks and mortar retailers are a key beneficiary of the government stimulus. This month, the retail sector has been one of the best performing sectors. The share price of Adairs and Nick Scali, rose by 20% after reporting their earning results. JobKeeper is one of the key reasons for positive earnings surprises. JobKeeper has…
The Hangover is coming
You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to know that the sugar hit from both Jobkeeper and Jobsaver are going to cause a terrible hangover. Its further exacerbated by the subsidies to childcare. I’m not against all these initiatives, rather I think that the Government acted well and did a great job softening the economic impact of the Corona…
Recession Or Recovery
With the recent rally in the share market, you would struggle to think that there has or will be any longer-term economic impact to companies or the economy. To use the logic of Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, in the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in…
Are Equities Oversold or Overbought?
At the close of market on Friday the Australian Market (All Ords) was down 4.87% after a record run in April. We are still heavily weighted to cash, which does require some resolve to maintain, both while the market is racing ahead and at the same time when you get days like today when the market is sold off nearly…
Where To From Here
Fellow Investors, We had our quarterly webinar this week, if you missed it there is a link below where you can watch it. This week we saw the equity market rapidly pulling back losses from prior weeks, there doesn't seem to be much recognition of the longer-term economic impacts of the current lockdown. The government stimulus needs to be paid…
Thoughts on volatile markets
Dear Fellow Investors, Firstly, thank you to all of our loyal and supportive shareholders and investors, it’s certainly volatile times in financial markets. The one factor that provides some comfort is that the market is presenting some attractive opportunities to buy companies. We continue to expect that markets will be volatile and this will impact share prices and our performance.…
The week that was and what it means for investors
Undoubtedly a tough week for markets, with US stocks suffering their worst loss in eight months and Australian markets following suit. Interestingly the sharp sell-off has come from concerns that in response to the US economy growing too fast a rapid deployment of interest rate increases will apply the brakes too hard. The knee-jerk reaction has been felt most hard…
Inconsistent market analysis can upset your investment’s hopes
This week we caught up with Collins Foods post their FY18 profit results announcement and expressed a warning to them to be more vigilant when monitoring the analyst forecasts in the market. We don’t own Collins Foods but have followed it closely for a number of years and it is pretty clear a decent result got a negative share price…
Is there any value in Blue Sky?
For those of you who didn’t have time to read the Glaucus research report on Blue Sky. We have had a look at it. While I wasn’t swept away with the quality or detail of the research it has had a marked impact on the share price as you can see from the chart below. We never held any shares…
Why I'm bored of bitcoin
One of the great things about the Christmas and new year break is being able to relax away from the market and reflect on the year gone by. Bitcoin was the hot topic for 2017, particularly in the second half. Let me be clear. I'm bored of bitcoin already. I'm bored with the influx of LinkedIn requests I'm getting from…
Investing in the China Story
Glennon recently attended a two-day China conference where we listened to representatives from Austrade, the Chinese answer to Amazon, Alibaba, and a bunch of local companies who are doing their best to succeed in China. There is no doubt the potential is enormous. If the economy grows at the expected 6% it is like doubling the economies of NSW and…